Will the US launch a direct military attack on Russia before August 1, 2026?

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Armed Forces launch a direct, overt kinetic military attack against the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation or active Russian military forces on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to "No". Definitions & Clarifications: • "Direct kinetic military attack" is defined as an intentional offensive military action involving lethal force, including but not limited to: airstrikes, naval bombardment, missile strikes, artillery fire, or deployment of ground troops in direct combat against Russian forces, officially ordered or acknowledged by the US government. • Exclusions: This market will not resolve to "Yes" based on: • Economic sanctions or diplomatic expulsions. • Cyberattacks or electronic warfare. • Proxy military aid, intelligence sharing, or weapons deliveries to third parties (e.g., Ukraine). • Accidental, non-combat border incursions or intercepts of military aircraft/vessels in international airspace/waters, unless they escalate into sustained direct combat. • Covert operations that are not officially acknowledged by the US Government or confirmed by undisputed intelligence reports. Resolution Source: The primary source for resolving this market will be official statements from the US Department of Defense, the White House, or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. In the event of ambiguity, a consensus of international, highly credible news agencies (specifically Reuters, The Associated Press (AP), and Bloomberg) will be used to determine the outcome. If these sources confirm a direct kinetic engagement occurred within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes". Expiry Date: • End Date: July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

• Resolver: official source.
• Deadline: closing date in UTC.
• Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.